Hurricane Beryl fueled by ocean warming linked to climate change

Unusually warm ocean temperatures contributed to Hurricane Beryl's rapid intensification. Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index: Ocean (Ocean CSI), which quantifies the influence of climate change on sea surface temperatures, found that the storm developed and intensified over waters whose elevated temperatures were made up to 400 times more likely by human-caused climate change.

Key takeaways

1. Hurricane Beryl rapidly intensified as it passed over waters that were 2°–3°F warmer than normal. 

2. The sea surface temperatures that fueled Hurricane Beryl are typically expected in September, not June.

3. Human-caused climate change made these temperatures 100–400 times more likely.

Expert quote

“Beryl is a striking illustration that this year’s hurricanes are growing in an environment clearly warmed by human-caused climate change.” - Dr. Daniel Gilford, climate scientist, Climate Central

What is significant about Hurricane Beryl?

Hurricane Beryl was a catastrophic North Atlantic storm during late June through early July 2024. Beryl's development and rapid intensification were facilitated by record-breaking warm ocean conditions and a period of lower-than-average vertical wind shear. Beryl’s maximum winds peaked at approximately 165 mph just west of the Lesser Antilles, making it the earliest season Category 5 hurricane in recorded history. Beryl caused about $6 billion dollars in damages in the U.S. alone and killed at least 60 people during landfalls in the Caribbean, Yucatán Peninsula, and U.S. Gulf Coast.

How did ocean temperatures play a role?  

As ocean temperatures warm in response to climate change, they provide unnatural extra fuel for tropical cyclones to intensify, and increase the likelihood that storms will undergo rapid intensification — increasing maximum sustained winds by at least 30 kt (about 35 mph) in a 24-hour period.

It is important to note that the Ocean CSI does not directly quantify how climate change affected Hurricane Beryl’s intensity; instead it speaks to the ocean conditions that allowed Beryl to become a historical and record-breaking storm.

The sea surface temperature over which Hurricane Beryl rapidly intensified was about 1.8°C (3.2°F) warmer than normal (based on the 1991-2020 average). The Ocean CSI indicates these temperatures were made 100–400 times more likely because of human-caused climate change.

Reporting resources

• Download a graphic

• Download a KML file for June 30 (for Max/Baron Lynx weather systems)

Methods

The Climate Shift Index: Ocean is computed using observations, models, and peer-reviewed attribution techniques, as described in Giguere et al. (2024).