Climate change is boosting severe heat in western India

Forecasts indicate that western India, including the National Capital Territory of Delhi, will experience a period of intense heat from May 18-20, 2024. The event will include unusually warm nighttime temperatures, which can intensify the risk of heat-related illness and death. Climate Central analysis indicates that human-caused climate change made these conditions much more likely.

Note: This event may continue beyond May 20. Use the global Climate Shift Index map to stay updated on unusual temperatures in your region.

How unusual is the forecasted heat?

• During the three-day period of May 18-20, daily high temperatures are expected to run 3°C to more than 6°C above average

• High temperatures are forecast to exceed 45°C in many locations

• In parts of Haryana state, maximum temperatures could surpass 47°C

• Nighttime low temperatures are not expected to fall below 34°C

• In parts of Rajasthan state, nighttime temperatures are not expected to fall below 37°C 

Many cities will experience extended periods of extreme heat. See table below for cities most impacted.  

How has climate change influenced this heat?

• The Climate Shift Index (CSI) for May 18-20 shows a large area with average levels at or above 3 across western and northwestern India. This includes the states of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and the  National Capital Territory of Delhi.

• While western India is expected to be hot, eastern India will be cooler than normal. This leads to conditions in Tamil Nadu that are three times less likely due to climate change (CSI level -3).

• Daily temperatures are expected to reach CSI level 5 in 11 cities: Bhopal, Daman, Dispur, Gandhinagar, Imphal, Jaipur, Mumbai, Panaji, Port Blair, Pune, Shillong. 

• A CSI level 5 indicates that human-caused climate change made this excessive heat at least five times more likely, signifying an exceptional climate change event. 

• Over the entire period, 543 million people in India will experience at least one day with CSI level 3.

What do experts say?

Dr. Andrew Pershing, VP for Science at Climate Central, said: 

“Human-caused climate change has made this intense heat much more likely. The high overnight temperatures make this event particularly alarming.”

How do we know climate change is influencing this heat?

The Climate Shift Index uses peer-reviewed methodology to estimate how climate change has increased the likelihood of a particular daily temperature. It can be run using historical or forecast temperatures.

Using computer models, we compared the likelihood that these temperatures would occur in a world without carbon emissions released by humans, versus in today's world with decades of carbon emissions building up in the atmosphere. This is an established scientific method to determine how much climate change has or has not affected individual extreme weather events.

For this analysis, temperatures come from the National Center for Environmental Prediction’s Global Forecast System.

To request an interview with a Climate Central scientist, please contact Peter Girard at pgirard@climatecentral.org

Reporting resources

Until greenhouse gas emissions end, heatwaves everywhere will continue to become hotter and more dangerous. Explore quick facts and local analyses on the links between climate change and extreme heat in:

• Climate Central’s Extreme Weather Toolkit: Extreme Heat

• World Weather Attribution’s guide to reporting on extreme heat and climate change

• Yale Climate Connections’ summary of the connection between heat waves and climate change.