Climate Matters
Hurricane Intensity and Impacts
This week, we focus on tropical cyclones in a warming climate, and assess the high human and economic costs associated with hurricane rapid intensification.
Extreme Weather Toolkit: Tropical Cyclones
Warming oceans fuel stronger tropical cyclones that bring more heavy rainfall and higher storm surge when they make landfall.
Tropical cyclones, which include hurricanes and tropical storms, can generate multiple devastating hazards including storm surge, flooding, winds of 100 mph or more, and tornadoes.
Those living near coasts are especially vulnerable to these tropical cyclone hazards and the risks of injury, death, and property damage.
Tropical cyclones are the most costly weather and climate disasters in the U.S by far. They account for over half of the total cost of all billion-dollar disasters since 1980.
Eight of the 10 most costly weather disasters in the U.S. were hurricanes. The top three (Hurricanes Katrina, Harvey, and Ian) caused an estimated $472 billion in damages.
Warming of the surface ocean due to human-caused climate change is fueling an increased proportion of intense tropical cyclones and contributing to an increased fraction of storms that undergo rapid intensification.
Since 1979, human-caused warming has increased the likelihood of a hurricane developing into a Category 3 or higher by about 8% per decade. The latest IPCC reports conclude that the proportion of very intense (Category 4 and 5) tropical cyclones is projected to increase globally with continued warming.
Although the frequency of tropical storms is not necessarily increasing, sea level rise can amplify the storm surge potential when storms do occur, putting coastal residents at particular risk.
Higher tropical cyclone rainfall rates are expected with further warming. Greater rainfall intensity can increase the risk of inland flooding, which accounts for more than half of past U.S. hurricane deaths.
Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index: Ocean mapping tool quantifies the influence of human-caused climate change on daily sea surface temperatures, and can speak to the unnatural warming of ocean waters that fuel and sustain tropical cyclones.
Updated: August 2024
Resources
These resources explore the science, trends, and local impacts of tropical cyclones
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